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WARC has put fresh numbers behind a trend that UK gambling groups have been warning about for months. New research says unlicensed operators are on track to catch and then pass regulated brands in advertising spend, with the crossover now expected by 2028.
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By the time 2028 arrives, black market gambling brands could be spending more on UK advertising than licensed operators. That is the central finding from WARC research published on April 21, one day before a Westminster Hall debate where MPs are due to look at gambling advertising and the way regulation is reshaping the market.
The forecast points to a fast climb for unlicensed operators. WARC expects their ad spend to rise from £844.7m in 2025 to 2026 to £934.2m in 2026 to 2027, then pass £1bn by 2028. Licensed operators are heading the other way. WARC expects their budgets to drop 9.2% in 2025 to 2026 and then fall another 2.6% to £1.022bn in 2026 to 2027.
WARC described the market as split in two. In its statement, the group said:
“While ad spend within the UK’s gambling sector is set to rise to £1.9bn this year, WARC research has found that there is a two-speed market at play, with almost all growth now being driven by unlicensed firms. These operators are predominantly based overseas and are paying ever-increasing amounts to reach UK consumers online via search and social media.”
That split is even clearer in sponsorship. WARC expects unlicensed operators to take more than half of gambling sponsorship spend as early as 2026 to 2027. Total sponsorship outlay has climbed from £158m in 2019 to 2020 to a projected £260m in 2026 to 2027, while the share held by regulated firms peaked in 2021 to 2022 and has fallen since then.
The Betting and Gaming Council used the report to warn that licensed firms are losing ground in front of consumers. Chief executive Grainne Hurst called the findings a turning point and said the trend should worry lawmakers. She said:
“The real question is whether advertising is coming from regulated operators, who are held to strict standards, or from the harmful, illegal black market, which operates entirely outside the rules.”
Hurst also argued that more limits on licensed operators would only help illegal brands:
“Targeting licensed operators when their advertising spend is already falling will not reduce overall advertising; it will simply bolster the harmful illegal black market, which is aggressively targeting UK customers. The government must go further and faster to clamp down on the black market before it is too late.”
Pressure on licensed firms has been building from several directions. Remote Gaming Duty rose from 21% to 40% on April 1. Remote Betting Duty is also due to rise from 15% to 25% from April 2027. Back in November 2025, the Office for Budget Responsibility estimated that those tax changes would shift about £500m in gambling activity into the black market, while also cutting yield through demand substitution and price pass through. On top of that, the fight over affordability checks has not gone away, with the BGC repeating that tougher checks could drive more customers to unregulated sites.