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Drift is when the odds for a selection increase due to a lack of bets. In sports betting, the odds for a selection represent the probability of that outcome occurring according to the bookmaker or the betting market. The odds for a selection can change over time depending on various factors, such as the performance of the teams or players, the injuries or suspensions, the weather or track conditions, the public opinion or sentiment, etc.
Drift is when the odds for a selection go up, meaning that the probability of that outcome occurring goes down, according to the bookmaker or the market. Drift usually happens when there is not enough demand or interest for a certain selection among the bettors. This can be because the selection is not very popular or attractive, or because there is more demand or interest for another selection in the same market.
For example, let’s say there is a football match between Team A and Team B. The odds for Team A to win are 2.00, meaning that they have a 50% chance of winning according to the bookmaker. The odds for Team B to win are 3.00, meaning that they have a 33.33% chance of winning according to the bookmaker. The odds for a draw are 4.00, meaning that there is a 25% chance of a draw according to the bookmaker.
As the match approaches, more bettors start to place their bets on Team B to win, because they think that Team B has a better form or a stronger lineup than Team A. As a result, the bookmaker has to adjust the odds to balance their risk and reward. The bookmaker lowers the odds for Team B to win from 3.00 to 2.50, meaning that they now have a 40% chance of winning according to the bookmaker. The bookmaker also raises the odds for Team A to win from 2.00 to 2.50, meaning that they now have a 40% chance of winning according to the bookmaker. The bookmaker also raises the odds for a draw from 4.00 to 5.00, meaning that there is now a 20% chance of a draw according to the bookmaker.
This means that Team A’s odds have drifted from 2.00 to 2.50 due to a lack of bets on them. This also means that Team B’s odds have shortened from 3.00 to 2.50 due to an increase in bets on them.
Drift happens because of the supply and demand dynamics of sports betting markets. Sports betting markets are influenced by various factors that affect the preferences and expectations of bettors and bookmakers. Some of these factors are:
These factors can create imbalances in supply and demand in sports betting markets, which can lead to drifts in odds. Supply refers to
the amount of money that is available to be wagered on a certain selection. Demand refers to the amount of money that is actually wagered on a certain selection. When supply exceeds demand, the odds for that selection will drift up, meaning that the probability of that outcome
will go down, according to the bookmaker or the market. When demand exceeds supply, the odds for that selection will drift down, meaning that the probability of that outcome will go up, according to the bookmaker or the market.
Drift matters because it can affect the value and return of sports bets. Value refers to the difference between the true probability of an outcome and the implied probability of the odds. Return refers to the amount of money that is won or lost from a bet. Drift can increase or decrease the value and return of sports bets, depending on the direction and magnitude of the drift and the timing and size of the bet.
For example, let’s say you want to bet on Team A to win the football match against Team B. You think that Team A has a 60% chance of winning, which means that the fair odds for Team A to win are 1.67 (100 / 60). However, the bookmaker offers you odds of 2.00 for Team A to win, which means that the implied probability of Team A to win is 50% (100 / 2). This means that there is a positive value in betting on Team A to win, because the true probability is higher than the implied probability.
If you bet $100 on Team A to win at odds of 2.00, you will have a potential return of $200 ($100 x 2) if Team A wins, or a loss of $100 if Team A loses or draws. Your expected value (EV) from this bet is $20 ($100 x (0.6 – 0.5)), which means that you can expect to make a profit of $20 in the long run from this bet.
Drift is when the odds for a selection increase due to a lack of bets. In sports betting, the odds are the prices that the bookmaker or the market offers for each possible outcome of an event. Drift occurs when there is less demand or interest for a certain outcome than expected by the bookmaker or the market. As a result, the bookmaker or the market has to adjust the odds to attract more bets on that outcome and balance their risk and profit.
Drift can happen for various reasons, such as changes in information, trends, or competition, that affect the perception and expectation of the outcome of an event. Drift matters because it can affect the value and return of your bets. Drift can have positive or negative effects on your bets, depending on your timing and strategy.
Drift can be dealt with in different ways, such as taking advantage of drift, avoiding drift, or hedging against drift, depending on your goals and skills.