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If you are interested in betting or gambling, you might have come across the term “true odds” and wondered what it means. True odds are the real odds of something happening, as opposed to what the bookies or the casinos offer. True odds are based on the actual probability or chance of an event occurring, without any margin or profit added by the bookies or the casinos. True odds are also known as fair odds or intrinsic odds.
True odds can be calculated by using the formula:
Probability is the likelihood or the chance of an event occurring, expressed as a number between 0 and 1, or as a percentage between 0% and 100%. Probability can be calculated by using the formula:
For example, if you want to calculate the true odds of rolling a six on a fair dice, you need to know the probability of rolling a six. The probability of rolling a six is 1/6, or 16.67%, because there is only one favorable outcome (rolling a six) out of six possible outcomes (rolling a one, a two, a three, a four, a five, or a six). The true odds of rolling a six are 1 / (1/6), or 6, or 6:1. This means that for every six times you roll the dice, you should expect to roll a six once, on average.
Bookies’ odds are the odds that the bookies or the casinos offer to the bettors or the gamblers. Bookies’ odds are not the same as true odds, because they include a margin or a profit for the bookies or the casinos. The margin is the difference between the true odds and the bookies’ odds, and it represents the advantage that the bookies or the casinos have over the bettors or the gamblers. The margin is also known as the vig, the juice, the overround, or the cut.
Bookies’ odds can be compared with true odds by using the formula:
The margin can be expressed as a percentage, which shows how much the bookies or the casinos take from the total amount bet. The lower the margin, the better the odds for the bettors or the gamblers. The higher the margin, the worse the odds for the bettors or the gamblers.
For example, if you want to compare the true odds and the bookies’ odds of rolling a six on a fair dice, you need to know the bookies’ odds of rolling a six. The bookies’ odds of rolling a six might be 5, or 5:1. This means that the bookies will pay you $5 for every $1 you bet, if you roll a six. The margin of the bookies’ odds is (1 / 5) – (1 / 6), or 0.0333, or 3.33%. This means that the bookies take 3.33% of the total amount bet, on average.
True odds are important for bettors or gamblers, because they help them to find value and to make better betting or gambling decisions. Value is the difference between the true odds and the bookies’ odds, and it represents the edge or the advantage that the bettors or the gamblers have over the bookies or the casinos. Value can be calculated by using the formula:
Value can be expressed as a percentage, which shows how much the bettors or the gamblers can expect to win or lose from the bet, on average. A positive value means that the bet is profitable, and a negative value means that the bet is unprofitable.
For example, if you want to calculate the value of betting $1 on rolling a six on a fair dice, you need to know the true odds and the bookies’ odds of rolling a six. The true odds of rolling a six are 6, or 6:1, and the bookies’ odds of rolling a six are 5, or 5:1. The value of betting $1 on rolling a six is (6 x 1/6) – 1, or 0, or 0%. This means that the bet is neither profitable nor unprofitable, and you can expect to break even, on average.
True odds are important for bettors or gamblers, because they help them to find value and to make better betting or gambling decisions. By comparing the true odds and the bookies’ odds, bettors or gamblers can identify the bets that have a positive value, and avoid the bets that have a negative value. By betting on the bets that have a positive value, bettors or gamblers can increase their chances of winning and making a profit, in the long run.
True odds are the real odds of something happening, as opposed to what the bookies or the casinos offer. True odds are based on the actual probability or chance of an event occurring, without any margin or profit added by the bookies or the casinos. True odds can be calculated by using the formula: True odds = 1 / Probability. True odds can be compared with bookies’ odds by using the formula: Margin = (1 / Bookies’ odds) – (1 / True odds). True odds are important for bettors or gamblers, because they help them to find value and to make better betting or gambling decisions. Value can be calculated by using the formula: Value = (True odds x Probability) – 1.