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UK gambling reform may not carry the economic damage often claimed by the industry. New research from NIESR and the University of Glasgow says most reduced gambling spend would likely move into other parts of the economy instead of disappearing.
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The clearest finding from the NIESR and University of Glasgow study is not about operators. It is about what players do next.
Researchers asked regular gamblers how they would use a hypothetical £50 a month no longer spent on gambling. Many pointed to basic spending, household items, saving, or paying down debt. That pattern changes the economic picture because reduced gross gambling yield, or GGY, does not automatically turn into a full loss for the UK economy.
The 2023 UK gambling white paper had forecast an annual GGY reduction of £329 million to £812 million, with online gambling expected to carry much of that reduction. The research team used the highest estimate, £812 million, then modelled the wider result through 2022 UK input-output tables.
After those spending changes, the estimated net loss fell to around £134 million. That represents about 16% of the gross gambling revenue reduction.
Katherine Simpson, lead author from the University of Glasgow, said:
“We looked at how people who gamble say they would adjust their spending if these reforms were introduced, and then we modelled what that means for the wider economy.
“What we find is that most of the money doesn’t disappear, it’s redirected elsewhere, so the overall economic impact is relatively limited.”
The study used a survey of 1,320 regular gamblers to shape its design. Then, between May and June 2025, 804 gamblers completed a stated preference discrete choice experiment across seven spending categories.
Black market gambling remains the weaker point in the model. If 8% of freed funds went to unlicensed sites, the net loss would rise to £189 million, or 23% of the gross reduction. If 27% shifted there, the loss would rise to £317 million, or 39%.
Even so, most online gamblers in the study did not pick that route. Around 73% said they would not redirect money to unlicensed gambling, while 8.5% consistently chose it during the experiment.
The online sector also changes the calculation. Because online gambling relies more on offshore supply chains, it has lower domestic multipliers than some other spending categories. The study found that a 9% to 10% reduction in the assumed gambling multiplier would wipe out the net loss entirely and could even create a small gain.
The research did not put a number on possible benefits from lower gambling harm, including health, wellbeing, productivity, or wider household stability. Those areas could improve the overall case for tighter rules.
Adrian Pabst, deputy director of the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, said:
“There is no necessary trade-off between enhanced regulation and greater economic growth. Our work shows that the new gambling regulations will have a very small negative impact on the UK economy and that there are potential benefits in terms of people who gamble regularly saving more or redirecting their consumption to other sectors.
“Industry fears about a massive hit to economic activity are overstated and also ignore the wider social benefits of the regulatory changes.”
The warning around illegal gambling has not gone away. The UK Gambling Commission has said that illegal operators have become harder to track as VPN use rises. Ofcom and Similarweb data showed VPN use increased from July 2025 and then settled at about 40% above earlier levels. GamCare also recorded nearly 2,000 people seeking financial guidance in 2025 over gambling-related money problems.