US Senate Bans Prediction Market Bets By Members And Staff

The U.S. Senate has adopted an immediate ban on prediction market activity by senators and staff, after fresh concerns over trades tied to politics, military action and private government information. The rule passed unanimously without a roll call vote.

Good to Know

• The Senate ban applies to members, staff and officers.
• Senator Bernie Moreno introduced the resolution, while Senator Alex Padilla broadened it to include staff.
• Kalshi and Polymarket both backed the restriction.

Prediction Market Rules Tighten In Washington

Prediction markets now face a new line in Washington. Senators and staff can no longer trade on platforms that let users wager on real-world events, from elections to foreign policy outcomes.

Senator Bernie Moreno pushed the rule after concerns grew around officials using sensitive information for personal gain. He said: “engaging in any way in a prediction market or trying to place bets where we might have inside information deteriorates our confidence that our constituents have in us.”

The Senate acted after several prediction market stories raised tougher ethics questions. One case involved a U.S. Army soldier accused of using classified information to profit from a market tied to Venezuelan politics. Other reports focused on fast trading around military and geopolitical outcomes, including events linked to Iran.

Kalshi has also dealt with political betting concerns inside its own market. Last week, the company fined and suspended three congressional candidates after they placed trades on their own races.

Even so, the two best-known prediction market operators supported the Senate action. Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour called it a “great step to increase trust in our markets by making it an industry standard.”

Polymarket also backed the rule, posting: “We’re in full support of this. Our Rulebook & Terms of Service already prohibit such conduct, but codifying this into law is a step forward for the industry.”

The House may follow next. Representative Ashley Hinson said she plans to introduce a similar resolution, while other lawmakers have also pushed wider limits on prediction market trading by government officials.