Maryland Ruling Slows Kalshi’s National Expansion

Kalshi just hit a legal bump in Maryland, and it could shape the future of prediction markets in the US. The federal court there didn’t side with the platform’s request to keep offering sports contracts—at least for now.

Good to know

• Kalshi lets users buy contracts based on the outcome of real-world events, including sports.
• Courts in Nevada and New Jersey had backed Kalshi’s operations.
• Maryland’s ruling is the first real pushback Kalshi has faced in court.

Kalshi has been making headlines for pushing prediction markets into the mainstream, especially through sports-based contracts. But in Maryland, things just took a turn.

A federal judge in the state denied Kalshi’s request for a preliminary injunction. That means Maryland regulators, for now, still have the power to block the company from operating in the state.

In his written opinion, Judge Adam Abelson said Kalshi had “failed to show a likelihood of success” in its case against the Maryland Lottery and Gaming Control Commission. The ruling, filed Friday, comes as a key moment for Kalshi after recent legal wins elsewhere.

Where Kalshi Has Succeeded

In other states, things have looked brighter for the platform. Courts in Nevada and New Jersey both sided with Kalshi, ruling that its event-based contracts fall under federal—not state—oversight. That allowed the company to continue operations without interference from state-level gaming regulators.

Kalshi argues that its system isn’t traditional sports betting. Instead, users buy “yes or no” contracts tied to the outcomes of specific events. The company has maintained that these products are a form of regulated event contracts and not gambling.

That distinction has helped Kalshi win support from some legal experts and skirt regulatory issues—at least up until Maryland stepped in.

Cease-and-Desist Pressure from States

Kalshi’s legal challenges aren’t limited to Maryland. Over a dozen states have sent cease-and-desist letters, saying the company’s contracts cross the line into illegal gambling territory.

In response, Kalshi has filed lawsuits against several state regulators, trying to secure its right to offer these contracts under federal rules.

Maryland’s court decision represents the first major pushback from a judge on the state side. It’s a change in the tide that could impact how prediction markets are viewed across the country.