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President Donald Trump has changed his tone on prediction markets, but he has not dropped his concerns. His latest comments came after a federal case tied to Polymarket added fresh attention to event contracts, insider information, and how far U.S. regulators should let the sector go.
Good to Know
Trump sounded more open during comments to reporters in Florida on Saturday. He did not give full support, but he pointed to people around the sector who back the idea. He said:
“I don’t know. I know some people who are very smart. They like it.
“They disagree, but they like it.”
Trump also brought up competition outside the U.S. and said:
“A lot of other countries are doing it, and when the other countries do it, we get left out in the cold if we don’t do it.”
Only days earlier, Trump used much sharper language at the White House. Reporters asked him about a U.S. soldier accused of using classified information to profit from Polymarket trades linked to a possible operation involving Nicolás Maduro. The Justice Department charged Gannon Ken Van Dyke in that case, and Polymarket flagged the activity before reporting it to authorities.
“Well, you know, the whole world, unfortunately, has become somewhat of a casino,” Trump said, and added:
“I don’t like it conceptually, but it is what it is.”
Those comments fit a wider concern around prediction markets. Kalshi recently fined and suspended three congressional candidates for betting on their own races, although each wager came in below $100. The platform banned them for five years, while some lawmakers argued the penalties were too light.
At the same time, the Trump circle has links to the sector. PBS reported that prediction markets tied to Trump comments on Iran drew major betting activity, including on platforms backed by Donald Trump Jr. ABC News also reported that the Trump family has ties to prediction market companies such as Polymarket.
Regulators are still fighting over who controls these products. The CFTC has sued New York officials after state action against prediction market operators, arguing that federally registered exchanges fall under federal oversight. New York has taken the position that some products look like illegal gambling under state law.