Kalshi NFL Pricing Still Trails FanDuel and DraftKings in Early Season

Prediction markets are often pitched as offering better odds than sportsbooks, but early NFL data shows Kalshi hasn’t yet matched the pricing edge of traditional operators. A new report from Citizens JMP Securities breaks down the numbers.

Good to Know

• Kalshi’s implied pricing in Week 2 was 5.12%, compared to DraftKings at 4.48% and FanDuel at 4.47%.
• In Week 1, Kalshi’s NFL odds were 7–10% more expensive than the leading sportsbooks by kickoff.
• Kalshi charges a transaction fee of $1.64 per 100 contracts, a unique cost that typical sportsbooks don’t impose.

Citizens JMP Sees No Threat to Sportsbooks

Citizens JMP Securities compared moneyline and totals pricing between Kalshi and the big U.S. players—FanDuel and DraftKings. Their research shows that, through the first two weeks of the season, Kalshi’s numbers remain higher, leaving sportsbooks more attractive for value-seeking bettors.

Citizens said in its statement announcing its findings:

“Currently, we do not view betting exchanges as a competitive threat to profitability for existing operators – DraftKings, Flutter (FanDuel), MGM Resorts (BetMGM), Caesars Entertainment, PENN Entertainment (ESPN BET), and Rush Street Interactive (BetRivers) in the legal sports betting states and do not expect to see reactionary promos/marketing as a result.”

What Do the Numbers Say?

Kalshi’s implied pricing fell slightly from Week 1 (5.31%) to Week 2 (5.12%). Even so, it remains higher than FanDuel (4.47%) and DraftKings (4.48%). FanDuel ticked up slightly week over week, while DraftKings dipped.

In Week 1, Kalshi’s contracts were 10% and 25% more expensive than DraftKings’ moneyline and totals markets, and 16% and 23% costlier than FanDuel’s. By kickoff, the gap narrowed but Kalshi still came in 7–10% above the sportsbooks.

Unlike sportsbooks, Kalshi operates more like an exchange. It charges a transaction fee—$1.64 per 100 contracts in Week 2 (down from $1.67 the prior week). While retail bettors pay this fee, Citizens noted that larger players such as sharps, whales, and institutions often avoid it, helping boost liquidity.

Citizens believes the model appeals most to bettors who might otherwise use offshore sites, rather than pulling players away from licensed sportsbooks.

NFL Seen as Key Liquidity Test

Kalshi has been running sports outcome markets since the Super Bowl but only recently rolled out spreads and totals. The NFL season is viewed as its most important test, given the league’s unmatched per-game betting volume.

Citizens expects pricing to tighten as more users join. “The NFL season should be some of the most liquid sports markets for Kalshi all year, excluding tentpole events, as we believe these games have the highest wagering per game across any league in the U.S.,” their research said.

They added that narrowing spreads would show the exchange gaining liquidity and potentially adjusting incentives for market makers.

So far, prediction markets haven’t cut into sportsbook share. Operators like FanDuel, DraftKings, BetMGM, Caesars, ESPN BET, and BetRivers still hold a clear advantage in pricing and promotions. While Kalshi is carving out its niche, Citizens sees no immediate threat to the dominant sportsbook model.