Kalshi is pressing forward with its sports prediction markets, now launching individual MLB game contracts just days after rolling out similar markets for the NBA. The move comes as several states ramp up pressure, claiming platforms like Kalshi are acting as unlicensed sportsbooks.
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The MLB contracts, introduced Wednesday, add to Kalshi’s recent sports offerings. The platform now lists markets on events ranging from who will win the World Series to whether the San Francisco Giants will defeat the Philadelphia Phillies on a specific day.
Kalshi doesn’t use betting odds in the traditional sense. Instead, users buy contracts that pay out based on the outcome of a specific event. If their prediction turns out correct, the contract settles in their favor. If not, the contract becomes worthless.
The model mirrors futures betting offered by regulated sportsbooks. However, Kalshi positions itself as a prediction market platform rather than a gambling operator, claiming its products are federally regulated and distinct from sports betting.
Despite Kalshi’s stance, state regulators across the U.S. are not convinced. Multiple cease-and-desist letters have been sent to platforms offering these contracts. Regulators argue they function no differently than sports betting apps and should follow the same licensing rules.
Rather than back off, Kalshi and similar platforms are preparing legal action to counter the states that are looking to ban their business model. They argue that prediction markets fall under the jurisdiction of federal agencies like the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), not state gaming regulators.
The tension highlights a larger battle over how prediction markets are categorized—and whether or not they need to follow the same rules as sportsbooks.