he Illinois Gaming Board (IGB) has joined a growing list of state regulators taking a firm stance against unlicensed prediction markets, signaling that such activities qualify as illegal gambling under state law.
Good to Know
In a memorandum responding to multiple inquiries from operators exploring the launch of prediction-based markets, IGB Administrator Marcus Fruchter made the state’s position clear. He said:
“As a general matter, there is no right under Illinois law to engage in or profit from gambling through contract or otherwise. Prediction markets constitute gambling activity under Illinois law. Parties that participate in or facilitate such activity in Illinois without IGB licensure or authorization are engaged in illegal gambling.”
Illinois follows Pennsylvania and Michigan, which both issued similar warnings earlier this month amid growing interest from operators considering prediction-style exchanges.
Pennsylvania Gaming Control Board Executive Chair Kevin O’Toole recently outlined “serious concerns” about event contracts in a letter sent to state senators and members of Congress on October 8. Days later, Michigan Gaming Control Board Executive Director Henry Williams issued a memorandum of his own, cautioning that involvement with such products “will have implications relative to your licensure” in the state.
The coordinated timing of these advisories suggests regulators are increasingly focused on prediction markets as operators explore new ways to merge trading and wagering concepts under federal Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) oversight.
Fruchter emphasized that Illinois law prohibits online wagering without a state license, regardless of whether it involves sports, contests, or elections, stating:
“It is unlawful to knowingly establish, maintain or operate an Internet site that permits a person to play a game of chance or skill for money or other thing of value, or that permits a person to make a wager upon the result of any sport, game, contest, political nomination, appointment or election via the Internet without an IGB-issued license.”
He added that any company facilitating unlicensed gambling could see its suitability for future licensure affected.
These statements reflect a growing divide between federal regulators, who have permitted certain event-based contracts through the CFTC, and state agencies seeking to limit their reach within local gambling frameworks.
They allow users to buy and sell contracts based on the outcome of real-world events, with prices reflecting the probability of an event occurring.
Regulators say prediction markets function like gambling, as participants risk money on uncertain outcomes.
Unlicensed companies offering event contracts or similar products in Illinois could face penalties and risk losing eligibility for future licenses.
Some are registered with the CFTC as designated contract markets, but states maintain the power to enforce local gambling laws.