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While admitting he’s not a gambler, entrepreneur and businessman Kevin O’Leary recently sparked controversy by casting doubt on pollsters’ ability to accurately predict election results. He even suggests that bettors may be more adept at forecasting election outcomes than traditional pollsters.
During an appearance on Fox News, O’Leary argued that those placing bets, particularly in Las Vegas, seem to have an almost prophetic understanding of electoral outcomes. He confidently stated, “They’re better than pollsters, frankly, if you look at the history.” O’Leary implied that those anxious about the upcoming Harris-Trump election in November should consider the insights from Vegas bookies.
However, there’s a significant flaw in this argument. Nevada bookmakers do not permit political betting, meaning O’Leary’s claim lacks a factual basis. The United States has strict regulations against political betting, and both major political parties have supported banning betting exchanges that might allow such wagers.
Interestingly, some academic researchers do utilize betting markets to gauge public opinion and electoral trends. Although these markets are not legal in the U.S., they provide insights that are often accurate. For instance, bettors predicted Donald Trump’s surprising 2016 victory and correctly anticipated Joe Biden’s 2020 win.
Currently, the political betting market is buzzing with predictions about the 2024 election. Platforms like Polymarket have placed Kamala Harris at the top, giving her a 52% chance of winning with running mate Tim Walz. Meanwhile, Trump’s odds have slightly decreased, with a 46% chance of securing the presidency.
Despite these early predictions, O’Leary wisely cautions against drawing any firm conclusions. He acknowledges, “I don’t think anybody can call this race right now.” He emphasizes that policy discussions and debates will play crucial roles in shaping the election’s outcome.
Regardless of who wins, O’Leary believes a Harris-Trump debate would make for compelling television, capturing the nation’s attention.