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Hong Kong has pulled back from a legal basketball betting launch that had been lined up for September. Officials said fast growth in crypto based prediction markets now needs a closer review before any licence process goes ahead.
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Hong Kong approved a law change in September to legalise basketball betting and pull activity away from the black market. Officials had tied that effort to an underground sector that generated an estimated HK34 billion, or US$4.3 billion, in 2023. Now the government has stepped back.
Alice Mak, Hong Kong Secretary for Home and Youth Affairs, said passing the law did not force the government to issue licences on a set schedule.
“As a responsible government, we must make decisive decisions when protecting the public interest,” Mak said. “If we were to blindly issue a licence simply because a bill was passed last year while disregarding other external factors, that would be irresponsible.”
Officials now want more time to assess prediction markets, where users trade on outcomes tied to sports, financial markets, and even military events. Growth from platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket has pushed regulators in several markets to ask the same question: are event contracts really trading products, or are they betting by another name?
In a Tuesday email, the government said prediction market trading volume jumped in 2025 and peaked at US$64 billion, up 200% from the year before. Authorities said that jump requires a deeper review of how those models and platforms operate.
The Hong Kong Jockey Club, expected to run the scheme, reportedly learned of the suspension on Monday night, though management knew earlier, according to the South China Morning Post. The paper quoted a “club insider” who said, “The prediction market has emerged for some time. Why wasn’t it foreseen earlier? … Was the decision based upon something beyond [the government’s] control?”
That question has fed wider talk in local media. Some reports have suggested Hong Kong did not want friction with Beijing, which keeps tight control over gambling policy and has linked cross border gambling to money laundering and other crime. As a Chinese special administrative region, Hong Kong operates with room on local policy, but central government pressure still matters.
Adrian Pedro Ho of the Legislative Council backed the delay and called it a careful call while gambling technology keeps changing.
“Basketball betting has not launched yet,” he said. “There is no reason to introduce something new that could encourage and fuel illegal gambling activities.”
No timeline has been given for legal basketball betting to begin.