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Flutter Entertainment has revised its 2024 financial projections due to “unfavorable” short-term results in sports betting. The company, which operates the popular FanDuel sportsbook in the United States, lowered its US revenue estimate by $370 million and its adjusted EBITDA by $205 million.
The recent NFL season has created an unusual environment for sportsbooks. Favorites have won games at a rate not seen in nearly two decades, benefiting bettors but posing challenges for operators. This customer-friendly trend has had a substantial impact on Flutter’s gross gaming revenue (GGR), reducing it by an estimated $438 million between November 12 and December 31, 2024. As a result, Flutter reported a $390 million decrease in revenue and a $260 million drop in adjusted EBITDA for this period.
Flutter now expects its 2024 US revenue to reach approximately $5.78 billion, down from earlier projections. Adjusted EBITDA is forecasted at $505 million, reflecting the impact of these sports betting trends. Despite the changes, the company remains optimistic about its long-term growth.
“The transitory nature of these results has no impact on the underlying assumptions and guidance expectations communicated at our Investor Day in September, and we remain confident in the growth drivers and long-term growth trajectory set out at the Investor Day,” Flutter stated in its update.
For the fourth quarter of 2024, Flutter anticipates a sportsbook net revenue margin of 6.6%, influenced by a structural revenue margin of 14.5%, unfavorable sports outcomes, and reduced promotional spending compared to the previous year. The company projects US revenue for the quarter to be around $1.59 billion, with adjusted EBITDA expected to hit $161 million. These figures include an overall Q4 betting impact of $643 million in GGR, $550 million in revenue, and $360 million in adjusted EBITDA.
Despite these challenges, FanDuel remains the top iGaming operator in the US, achieving the highest market share in August 2024. This leadership position highlights Flutter’s ability to sustain its competitive edge in a rapidly evolving industry.
Flutter plans to provide a more detailed analysis in its full Q4 2024 earnings report, scheduled for release in March 2025. This update will include guidance for the rest of the year, offering further clarity on how the company plans to navigate these short-term challenges while focusing on long-term growth.