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England stands out as the top contender for the UEFA EURO 2024 title, according to advanced AI-based simulations conducted by sports technology leader Sportradar. Using betting insights from its vast network of 900 sports betting operators, Sportradar’s AI provided a comprehensive analysis, predicting England as the favorite to lift the trophy on July 14.
Sportradar’s AI algorithm processed tens of thousands of data points to simulate 10,000 scenarios for each of the tournament’s 51 matches. The result? England emerged victorious in 24% of the simulations, outpacing other strong teams like France and Germany.
The data-driven predictions place England at the forefront, with a notable probability of success. “This suggests Gareth Southgate’s side have a significant chance of winning the EURO 2024 title,” according to Sportradar’s AI probability model.
The simulations reveal the following probabilities for key teams:
| TEAM | TOURNAMENT CHAMPION | REACH THE FINAL | OVERCOME THE QUARTERS | REACH THE TOP 8 | PASS THE FIRST PHASE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ENGLAND | 24.0% | 37.3% | 54.8% | 75.0% | 97.0% |
| FRANCE | 18.1% | 31.0% | 50.6% | 72.3% | 94.2% |
| GERMANY | 15.2% | 26.3% | 42.7% | 67.2% | 95.5% |
| PORTUGAL | 10.5% | 20.8% | 39.5% | 61.3% | 95.4% |
| SPAIN | 9.3% | 18.1% | 32.6% | 62.3% | 90.7% |
| ITALY | 5.3% | 11.9% | 25.1% | 53.4% | 85.7% |
| NETHERLANDS | 4.5% | 10.9% | 25.3% | 47.7% | 77.4% |
| BELGIUM | 4.4% | 10.4% | 23.5% | 49.9% | 90.7% |
| CROATIA | 1.8% | 5.4% | 13.5% | 36.1% | 70.8% |
| DENMARK | 1.4% | 4.5% | 12.2% | 29.1% | 70.8% |
| AUSTRIA | 0.9% | 3.1% | 9.9% | 25.6% | 55.1% |
| SWITZERLAND | 0.9% | 2.8% | 9.0% | 25.5% | 61.9% |
| PERU | 0.8% | 2.8% | 9.4% | 23.4% | 71.3% |
| UKRAINE | 0.8% | 2.9% | 9.5% | 26.7% | 72.4% |
| SERBIA | 0.5% | 2.2% | 7.2% | 21.1% | 59.4% |
| HUNGARY | 0.5% | 2.2% | 7.1% | 21.7% | 57.4% |
| POLAND | 0.3% | 1.1% | 4.7% | 15.5% | 39.0% |
| CZECH | 0.3% | 1.4% | 5.4% | 16.5% | 60.5% |
| SCOTLAND | 0.2% | 1.4% | 4.9% | 16.6% | 49.9% |
| ROMANIA | 0.2% | 1.2% | 4.9% | 18.0% | 60.2% |
| SLOVAKIA | 0.1% | 0.6% | 2.7% | 11.7% | 46.0% |
| ALBANIA | 0.1% | 0.4% | 1.6% | 7.2% | 24.4% |
| SLOVENIA | 0.1% | 0.5% | 2.1% | 8.8% | 35.4% |
| GEORGIA | 0.0% | 0.6% | 1.9% | 7.7% | 38.9% |
Sportradar’s AI simulations also forecast the top contenders for the EURO 2024 Golden Shoe. French star Kylian Mbappé leads the pack, emerging as the top scorer in 15.2% of the simulations. England’s Harry Kane follows closely at 14.8%.
| NAME | COUNTRY | % CHANCE |
|---|---|---|
| KYLIAN MBAPPE | FRANCE | 15.2% |
| HARRY KANE | ENGLAND | 14.8% |
| CRISTIANO RONALDO | PORTUGAL | 6.4% |
| JUDE BELLINGHAM | ENGLAND | 4.5% |
| OLIVIER GIROUD | FRANCE | 3.8% |
| ROMELU LUKAKU | BELGIUM | 3.6% |
| ALVARO MORATA | SPAIN | 3.4% |
| PHIL FODEN | ENGLAND | 2.9% |
| KAI HAVERTZ | GERMANY | 2.9% |
| CIRO IMMOBILE | ITALY | 2.6% |
The simulations also predict the number of goals likely needed to secure the Golden Shoe, with six goals offering the highest probability at 31.4%.
| NUMBER OF GOALS SCORED | % CHANCE |
|---|---|
| 3 | 0.1% |
| 4 | 6.4% |
| 5 | 28.0% |
| 6 | 31.4% |
| 7 | 19.2% |
| 8 | 9.1% |
| 9 | 3.7% |
| 10 | 1.5% |
| 11 | 0.5% |
| 12 | 0.2% |
| 13 | 0.0% |
| 14 | 0.1% |