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The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has issued an advisory to prediction market operators while preparing new regulatory guidelines. Federal regulators want stronger protections against market manipulation and are reviewing which contracts should be restricted in the public interest.
Good to Know
Prediction contract trading gained wider attention during 2025 and early 2026. Sports event contracts brought many new users into prediction platforms, while markets tied to politics, entertainment, and finance continued to attract regular participants.
Growing visibility has drawn closer attention from regulators. The CFTC has now opened a public comment period before drafting formal rules.
Chairman Michael S. Selig said:
“Today’s action is an important step in the Commission’s continued effort to promote responsible innovation in our derivatives markets.
“This begins the process of new rulemaking grounded in a rational and coherent interpretation of the Commodity Exchange Act, while reassuring the American people that the CFTC will exercise its exclusive jurisdiction over prediction markets.”
The agency released an Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking to collect input on how prediction platforms operate and what types of contracts should remain allowed. Officials also mentioned “other topics” that may become part of the regulatory review.
Information gathered from public submissions will help shape future policy and enforcement standards for licensed prediction platforms.
CFTC officials noted that certain event contracts could be considered “contrary to the public interest.” Examples include markets connected to assassination, war, or acts of terror. Contracts tied to those events could be removed from available offerings.
Regulation also requires contracts to avoid manipulation risks. Under Designated Contract Market Core Principle 3, prediction platforms must avoid contracts that are “readily susceptible” to manipulation or tampering.
Regulators also acknowledged ongoing disputes over sports event contracts. Instead of suggesting an immediate shutdown of those markets, the agency pointed to possible cooperation between sports leagues and regulatory authorities to improve oversight.
Public comments must be submitted in writing within 45 days after the notice appears in the Federal Register. The CFTC said submitted information may become public unless the sender requests confidential treatment.