Former Bitmex CEO Arthur Hayes has weighed in on the anticipated bitcoin halving, predicting a downturn in cryptocurrency prices in the near term. In a recent Medium post, Hayes elaborated on his perspective, cautioning investors about potential market volatility surrounding the halving event.
While many view the halving as a positive catalyst for crypto markets, Hayes offered a contrasting viewpoint. He acknowledged the potential for medium-term price increases but expressed concern over short-term fluctuations. Hayes emphasized, “The narrative of the halving being positive for crypto prices is well entrenched. When most market participants agree on a certain outcome, the opposite usually occurs.”
Hayes highlighted the period leading up to May 1st as particularly precarious for investors. He cited factors such as tighter dollar liquidity, tax payments affecting market liquidity, and ongoing quantitative tightening (QT) measures as contributors to market instability. Hayes outlined his strategy, stating, “From now until May 1st, I will be in a no-trade zone.”
Despite the market turbulence, Hayes refrained from outright shorting the market, instead opting to close certain trading positions. He expressed optimism for a return to market normalcy post-May 1st, anticipating a resumption of asset inflation fueled by government intervention. Hayes concluded, “From now until May 1st, I will be in a no-trade zone. I hope to return in May with dry powder ready to deploy to position myself for the bull market to begin in earnest.”