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Popular crypto analyst PlanB, and the creator of the stock-to-flow model, believes Bitcoin may be setting up for a new bull run based on the behavior of two key moving averages. In a recent video update shared with his 209,000 YouTube subscribers, the analyst explains how the current relationship between the 200-week arithmetic and geometric averages could signal an incoming price breakout.
According to PlanB, when these two averages are close together, Bitcoin tends to perform well shortly after. He points out that similar setups in past cycles have led to major rallies.
“In fact, if we look at the historical situations where the lines are together, that would be here at the end of 2020; that’s when the bull market began. The end of the bull market, the FOMO phase. Same as in the beginning of 2017, the lines were together. So arithmetic mean and geometric mean together could mean the bull market is about to start,” he said.
PlanB’s analysis focuses on two long-term trend indicators: the 200-week arithmetic mean and the 200-week geometric mean. These measures smooth out price action over several years and are often used to identify overall market direction.
He explains that when the two lines are close together, it has historically been a calm zone—often just before price acceleration. Large market crashes, on the other hand, have typically taken place when the gap between the two lines widened.
“You can’t have a bear market or a big crash when the 200-week arithmetic mean and the geometric mean are together,” he said. “The big crashes here are happening when there’s a diversion between the two lines. Also, here in 2018, there was a big gap between the two. Same here in 2014 and 2015.”
The proximity of these moving averages has often appeared at turning points in Bitcoin’s long-term cycles. PlanB noted that similar setups occurred just before rallies in 2017 and again in 2020. In both cases, the alignment preceded large upside moves, including periods defined by strong price momentum and investor optimism.
While no signal is foolproof, PlanB’s analysis adds another data point for those watching Bitcoin’s long-term chart structure. If history repeats, Bitcoin could be entering a phase where upside becomes more likely than downside.