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As the United States pushes forward with import tariffs, some investors are asking how these moves might influence markets outside traditional finance. Arthur Hayes, BitMEX co-founder and a frequent crypto commentator, believes the impact could reach Bitcoin and gold in a positive way.
Hayes laid out his argument in a series of posts on X, where he explained how trade policies could indirectly support Bitcoin’s price. His thinking centers on how tariffs affect the strength of the US dollar and global capital flows.
When tariffs make US products more expensive, American companies often struggle to stay competitive internationally. That can lead foreign investors to move money out of US markets, especially from tech stocks, and return capital to their home countries. According to Hayes, this process weakens the dollar.
A weaker dollar typically drives investors toward assets that can act as a hedge. Bitcoin and gold are two options that often benefit when the dollar loses strength. Hayes believes both stand to gain if current trade policies continue.
Another factor Hayes highlights is the falling yield on US two-year Treasury bonds. Lower yields usually signal that markets expect interest rate cuts. If the Federal Reserve lowers rates or returns to quantitative easing, that could bring fresh money into the system—something that has boosted Bitcoin in the past.
Still, any boost in price might come with side effects. More stimulus could push inflation higher. That leaves open the question of whether Bitcoin’s gains would reflect true value growth or just a response to broader monetary shifts.
Hayes isn’t ignoring the risks. He points out that the crypto market is nervous, especially in the short term. Bitcoin has seen sharp swings recently, and Hayes thinks the coming days will be critical. He recently posted, “Mrkt no likey ‘Liberation Day.’”
He also marked $76,500 as a key level and said that If $BTC can hold $76.5k between now and tax day (April 15 in the US), then we’re out of the danger zone.
In other words, Bitcoin needs to hold that price level to avoid further selling pressure. If it does, Hayes believes the broader trend remains intact.