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Leading analytics company Glassnode has identified a noteworthy clue that suggests Bitcoin (BTC) might be approaching a turning point. The company is keeping a careful eye on the short-term holder (STH) cost basis of Bitcoin, which is a measure of the average price paid by investors who have held the cryptocurrency for fewer than 155 days.
Historical trends reveal that Bitcoin often transitions into bear market territory when its price falls below this benchmark. Glassnode recently stated on X, “Bitcoin’s Short-Term Holder (STH) cost-basis model is crucial for gauging sentiment among new investors. Historically, this model has tracked market lows during bull cycles and also distinguished bull from bear markets.”
At the moment, the price of Bitcoin is almost 7% greater than the $88,135 STH cost basis. Glassnode cautions, though, that if prices fall and level off below this mark, it might be a sign that new investors are losing faith in the market. As of this writing, the price of Bitcoin is $94,210.
While short-term sentiment is under pressure, Glassnode notes that long-term holders (LTHs)—those who have held Bitcoin for 155 days or more—are also making significant moves. The firm observes that LTHs are offloading Bitcoin at an unusually high rate.
Despite this, the analytics firm explains that peak distribution among LTHs does not always signal the end of a bull market. “Even at prices about 12% below all-time highs, Bitcoin Long-Term Holders (LTHs) are still distributing, but at a slower rate. Yet, the 30-day percent change in LTH supply suggests that the rate of distribution has likely peaked, reaching extremes seen in previous cycles.”
Glassnode adds that in prior cycles, Bitcoin prices continued to rise after LTH distribution peaked, suggesting no immediate cause for alarm.
Another key insight from Glassnode is that nearly all long-term holders remain profitable. The firm concludes, “Bitcoin LTH supply in loss remains at 0%. Nearly all Long-Term Holders are still in profit. Historically, when LTHs experience persistent losses that grow in severity, it has often marked the true end of a cycle. For now, that’s not the case.”