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Mike McGlone, Bloomberg Intelligence’s senior macro strategist, is warning that Bitcoin might be on the brink of falling to levels not experienced since 2020. The potential dip could be reminiscent of the past when Bitcoin managed to scale up by almost 400% following the Federal Reserve’s intervention during the 2020 market crash caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.
Historically, Bitcoin’s market performance saw a significant uplift when the Federal Reserve embarked on a rapid expansion of the money supply to stabilize the falling market. As McGlone shared with his significant Twitter base of over 55,000 followers on Monday, Bitcoin managed to surge nearly four times from its value before the Fed’s intervention. The cryptocurrency’s value soared in response to the Federal Reserve’s unprecedented measures to inject liquidity into the economy.
However, recent market conditions have deviated from this trajectory. With liquidity shrinking and interest rates escalating, Bitcoin may be teetering on the precipice of a reversal, hinted McGlone. A return to the launching pad of the previous rally, around the $7,000 mark, may not be a far-fetched scenario. This predicted tumble would equate to a roughly 75% reduction from Bitcoin’s present trading price of $27,289 according to CoinMarketCap data.
Slumping copper and cryptos appear to be heeding the warning and contrast notably to the resilient stock market.
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In McGlone’s view, Bitcoin’s historical trend of booming in times of high liquidity and crashing when liquidity dries up indicates a likely shift in the market. His concerns stem from the Federal Reserve’s recent tightening measures, which have occurred twice despite bank runs, displaying a show of strength from the central bank.
“Bitcoin’s enduring patterns of booms on the back of liquidity and busts when it’s removed tilt our directional bias for Bitcoin toward respecting the down-sloping 52-week mean,” cautioned McGlone.
Furthermore, McGlone points out the seeming market dichotomy between the slipping value of copper and cryptocurrencies, as opposed to the persisting resilience in the stock market. He views these as signs that the market is heeding the warning bells rung by the central bank’s ongoing tightening measures.