Europe is not speaking with one voice on prediction markets, but nine gambling regulators now want the unlicensed side of the sector boxed in during the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
Good To Know
Prediction markets have moved from crypto circles into sports, politics and economic events. Users trade contracts on outcomes rather than placing traditional fixed odds bets, yet European regulators often reach the same legal answer: real-money outcome trading needs a gambling licence.
Gibraltar has chosen a licensed route. ADI Predictstreet recently became Europe first licensed prediction market operator and launched before the 2026 FIFA World Cup. The company also became FIFA official prediction market partner for the tournament.
That deal now sits beside a tougher message from other regulators. Authorities from Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Spain and Switzerland said sports federations, leagues and clubs should check the legal status of any prediction market partner before signing sponsorship or commercial agreements.
Malta took a different position by not joining the statement. In March, Economy Minister Silvio Schembri said the country was “actively exploring the emerging field of prediction markets, an area experiencing rapid global momentum which presents significant opportunities for innovation.”
The coordinated action focuses on platforms that target European users without local approval. Regulators cited several risk areas: weak identity checks, poor age verification, betting-style access around the clock, and the lack of mandatory tools such as betting limits or cooling-off periods.
The World Cup gives the campaign extra weight. Sports event contracts can spread quickly through social media, crypto communities and trading-style interfaces, especially when football betting attention peaks.
Spain has already used enforcement. The Directorate General for the Regulation of Gambling blocked Polymarket and Kalshi in May after saying both platforms offered services in Spain without the required administrative licences. France and the Netherlands have also used geoblocking against prediction market operators.
More action may follow. The nine regulators plan to share information during and after the World Cup, compare enforcement knowledge and monitor advertising compliance. Betting integrity checks and safer gambling campaigns also sit inside the plan.
Platforms that ignore local rules could face formal warnings, service blocking, fines, advertising restrictions and account freezes. Regulators also flagged offshore and decentralized crypto-based licences, since those licences may not satisfy national gambling rules when operators reach local players.
The policy gap with the U.S. is an obvious one too. American agencies continue to debate whether event contracts belong under financial regulation or gambling law. In much of Europe, regulators start from a simpler test: when users stake money on real-world outcomes, local gambling authorization usually comes first.