A long shot is a bet that has a low probability of winning. That is, a long shot is a team or a player that is not expected to win or perform well in a game or a tournament. For example, if Team A is favored to win by 10 points over Team B, Team B would be considered a long shot. Similarly, if Player X has odds of 100-to-1 to win a tennis match against Player Y, Player X would be considered a long shot.
The term “long shot” comes from the idea of shooting at a distant target that is hard to hit. In betting, a long shot is a risky wager that has a high reward if it succeeds. The reward is usually expressed in terms of the odds or the payout that the bettor receives if the long shot wins.
How are the Odds and Payouts for Long Shots Determined?
The odds and payouts for long shots are determined by the bookmaker or the betting platform that accepts the bets. The bookmaker sets the odds and payouts based on various factors, such as:
The popularity and reputation of the teams or players involved.
The current form and performance of the teams or players involved.
The historical results and trends of the teams or players involved.
The injuries, suspensions, or other factors that may affect the teams or players involved.
The public opinion and demand for the bets.
The bookmaker aims to balance the bets on both sides of the market, so that they can make a profit regardless of the outcome. To do this, they may adjust the odds and payouts to attract or discourage bets on certain teams or players. For example, if many people bet on Team A, the bookmaker may lower the odds and payout for Team A and raise them for Team B, to entice more bets on Team B.
The odds and payouts for long shots are usually expressed in different formats, depending on the region or the sport. The most common formats are:
Decimal odds: This format shows how much money the bettor will receive for every $1 wagered, including the original stake. For example, if Team B has decimal odds of 11.00 to win, it means that the bettor will receive $11 for every $1 wagered, if Team B wins.
Fractional odds: This format shows how much profit the bettor will receive for every $1 wagered, excluding the original stake. For example, if Player X has fractional odds of 100/1 to win, it means that the bettor will receive $100 profit for every $1 wagered, if Player X wins.
American odds: This format shows how much money the bettor will have to wager to win $100, or how much money the bettor will receive for wagering $100, depending on whether the odds are positive or negative. For example, if Team B has American odds of +1000 to win, it means that the bettor will receive $1000 for wagering $100, if Team B wins. If Player X has American odds of -10000 to win, it means that the bettor will have to wager $10000 to win $100, if Player X wins.
What are the Benefits and Drawbacks of Betting on Long Shots?
Betting on long shots has some benefits and drawbacks that you should be aware of before placing your bets. Here are some of them:
Benefits
You can win big with a small stake. Betting on long shots allows you to potentially win a large amount of money with a relatively small investment. This can be very appealing and satisfying for some bettors who like to take risks and chase big rewards.
You can have more fun and excitement. Betting on long shots can make watching sports more fun and exciting, as you root for an unlikely outcome that can turn the game around. You can also enjoy bragging rights and pride if your long shot bet pays off.
You can exploit market inefficiencies or insider information. Sometimes, betting on long shots can be profitable if you have access to information or insights that are not reflected in the odds or payouts. For example, you may know something about an injury, a motivation, or a strategy that gives an edge to an underdog team or player.
Drawbacks
You have a low chance of winning. Betting on long shots means that you are betting against the odds and against the majority of bettors. You have to accept that you will lose more often than you will win, and that you may go through long losing streaks.
You may lose more money than you can afford. Betting on long shots can be tempting and addictive, as you may chase your losses or increase your stakes to try to win back your money. However, this can lead to financial problems and emotional distress if you are not careful and disciplined with your money management.
You may fall victim to the gambler’s fallacy or the confirmation bias. Betting on long shots can also affect your judgment and reasoning, as you may fall prey to some cognitive biases that can impair your decision making. For example, you may believe that a long shot is due to win after a series of losses, or that a long shot is more likely to win because of some random events that confirm your beliefs.
How to Bet on Long Shots Successfully?
Betting on long shots can be a rewarding strategy if done correctly and carefully. Here are some tips on how to bet on long shots successfully:
Do your research and analysis before placing your bets. Look at various sources and information that can help you evaluate and compare the teams or players involved, and their chances of winning or performing well. Look for factors that can give an advantage or a disadvantage to an underdog team or player, such as statistics, trends, injuries, motivation, weather, etc.
Shop around and find the best odds and payouts for your bets. Compare different bookmakers and betting platforms, and see which ones offer the best value or the lowest juice for your bets. You may also look for arbitrage opportunities or hedging options that can reduce your risk or increase your profit.
Be selective and disciplined with your bets. Don’t bet on every game or every long shot. Look for spots where you have an edge or an opportunity over the bookmaker or the market. Set a budget and stick to it. Don’t bet more than you can afford to lose or chase your losses.
Review your results and learn from your experience. Keep track of your bets and evaluate your performance. Identify your strengths and weaknesses, and improve your skills. Don’t let your emotions or biases affect your judgment or reasoning.
To Sum Up
Betting on long shots is a common and popular way to bet on sports, especially on games or tournaments where there is a clear favorite and an underdog. It means that you are betting on an underdog that is deemed to have a small chance of winning. However, betting on long shots also comes with some benefits and drawbacks, such as winning big with a small stake, having more fun and excitement, exploiting market inefficiencies or insider information, having a low chance of winning, losing more money than you can afford, falling victim to the gambler’s fallacy or the confirmation bias. Therefore, you need to do your research, shop for the best odds, be selective, manage your money, and review your results. By following these tips, you can increase your chances of betting on long shots successfully and profitably.