What Is Overlay in Betting?

If you are a sports betting enthusiast, you might have heard of the term “overlay” and wondered what it means. An overlay is a team getting more than what’s perceived as fair odds by the bookmaker or the sportsbook. An overlay is also known as a positive expected value (+EV) bet, as it offers a higher return than the risk involved. In this article, we will explain what an overlay is, how to identify it, and how to take advantage of it.

What Is an Overlay?

An overlay is a situation in which the odds of a particular wager are higher than they should be for the bookmaker or the sportsbook to turn a profit. This usually happens when the bookmaker or the sportsbook fails to do enough research on the match, or when they underestimate the public opinion or the betting action on a certain team. For example, if the bookmaker or the sportsbook sets the odds for a soccer match as follows:

• Team A +150
• Team B -150

This means that you have to bet $150 to win $100 if you bet on Team B, and you have to bet $100 to win $150 if you bet on Team A. However, if you have done your own analysis and research, and you believe that Team A has a 50% chance of winning the match, then you have found an overlay. This is because the odds imply that Team A has a 40% chance of winning the match, while your estimate is higher. Therefore, you have an opportunity to make a profit by betting on Team A.

How to Identify an Overlay?

Identifying an overlay is not an easy task, as it requires a lot of knowledge and skill in sports betting. However, there are some steps and tips that can help you find an overlay, such as:

• Do your own research and analysis on the game or event, and estimate the probability and the outcome of each team or participant. You can use various sources of information and data, such as statistics, trends, ratings, models, algorithms, and experts, to help you with your estimation.
• Compare your estimation with the odds and the markets offered by the bookmaker or the sportsbook, and look for any discrepancies or differences. You can use online tools like Oddschecker or SafeBettingSites to find the best odds and markets available for your bet.
• Calculate the expected value (+EV) of your bet, and see if it is positive or negative. The expected value is the amount of money you can expect to win or lose in the long run by placing a certain bet. You can calculate the expected value by multiplying the probability of winning by the amount of money you can win, and subtracting the probability of losing by the amount of money you can lose. For example, if you bet $100 on Team A at +150 odds, and you estimate that Team A has a 50% chance of winning, then the expected value of your bet is:
• EV = (0.5 x 150) – (0.5 x 100)
• EV = 75 – 50
• EV = 25

This means that you can expect to win $25 in the long run by placing this bet, which is a positive expected value. Therefore, you have found an overlay.

How to Take Advantage of an Overlay?

Taking advantage of an overlay is a matter of timing and discipline. Here are some tips that can help you take advantage of an overlay, such as:

• Bet early and bet big. If you have found an overlay, you should place your bet as soon as possible, before the bookmaker or the sportsbook adjusts the odds and the markets based on the betting action or the new information. You should also bet as much as you can afford to lose, as you have a higher chance of winning than the odds suggest.
• Shop around and compare. If you have found an overlay, you should check different bookmakers or sportsbooks, and see if they offer the same or better odds and markets for your bet. You might find even more value or opportunities by shopping around and comparing.
• Manage your bankroll and set a budget. If you have found an overlay, you should not bet more than you can afford to lose, or chase your losses. You should stick to your plan and limit your bets to a certain amount or percentage of your bankroll.

To Sum Up

An overlay is a team getting more than what’s perceived as fair odds by the bookmaker or the sportsbook. An overlay is a positive expected value (+EV) bet, as it offers a higher return than the risk involved. An overlay is not easy to find, as it requires a lot of research and analysis. An overlay can be taken advantage of by betting early and big, shopping around and comparing, and managing your bankroll and budget. An overlay is a rare and valuable phenomenon in sports betting, and you should be aware of it and how to deal with it.