Prediction markets captured about 27% of legal U.S. World Cup sports betting volume, giving Kalshi its clearest test yet against DraftKings and FanDuel.
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World Cup trading turned prediction markets into a direct competitor for U.S. sportsbooks. H2 Gambling Capital estimated that event contracts represented 27% of legal tournament betting volume, although exchanges and sportsbooks calculate activity differently.
Kalshi repeatedly broke trading records. Its tournament peak more than doubled the level reached during the New York Knicks playoff run and ran nearly 10 times above early 2026 figures.
App data told a similar story. Apptopia found more daily Kalshi users than DraftKings or FanDuel during the World Cup.
“The growth has put feet to the fire for these traditional sportsbooks to start offering a similar service,” Bernstein analyst Ian Moore said. “It’s a new opportunity for everyone.”
Heavy advertising helped. Kalshi appeared on digital perimeter boards during the later stages of every match, a placement normally linked with sportsbook brands.
Combo contracts also gained users. The product works much like a sportsbook parlay by combining several outcomes into one higher-risk trade.
Federal regulation gives prediction markets another advantage. CFTC regulated exchanges can operate in states without legal sports betting and often accept customers from age 18. Many sportsbooks require customers to be 21.
DraftKings and FanDuel have responded with prediction products, although Apptopia data showed limited early use for the standalone FanDuel app. FanDuel said the World Cup still delivered record customer engagement and its 10 highest-handled soccer matches.
Meanwhile, DraftKings and Flutter Entertainment shares fell more than 25% during 2026 after retreating from pre-tournament gains.
Kalshi led the sector with more than double Polymarket World Cup volume, according to Dune Analytics data. Polymarket has faced legal disputes and delays around its U.S. return, while a new platform backed by Robinhood Markets and Susquehanna International Group also attracted trading.
Analysts still see some separation between sportsbook customers and prediction market traders.
“It’s pretty clear that prediction markets have had a very good World Cup,” H2 Gambling Capital Managing Director Ed Birkin said. “I think they are less of a threat than some people make out, but they are definitely eating around the edges, and these customers will allow them to continue growing their business.”
Kalshi must now retain users after the Spain versus Argentina final. Its growth after the Super Bowl and its broad range of non-sports contracts provide a tested route beyond major events.