The 2026 FIFA World Cup could become the largest soccer betting event yet for legal sportsbooks. H2 Gambling Capital projects $60B in global handle, with North America adding a much larger share than in past tournaments.
Good to Know
The biggest change for operators is not only the larger tournament. The legal betting map also looks different than it did during the 2022 World Cup. The US now has legal sports betting in most states, Brazil opened a regulated betting market in 2025, and the 2026 tournament sits in three North American host countries.
That mix gives H2 a $60B global handle forecast through legal sports betting channels. The first 48 team FIFA World Cup runs from June 11 to July 19, with 104 matches across the US, Mexico and Canada. More games help, but H2 does not treat the expanded format as a straight path to runaway betting volume.
“While the expanded tournament creates additional opportunities for operators to drive engagement, we remain cautious in our handle estimates, reflecting the potential dilution in match quality and interest associated with the increased number of fixtures,” H2 analysts said. “Our handle projections are also sensitive to the performance of the largest markets, both in footballing and betting terms, with deeper runs by major nations expected to drive materially higher wagering activity.”
North America should carry a much larger part of the World Cup betting market. H2 expects the three host nations to produce almost 10% of global handle, or $5.7B. The US leads with $2.9B, more than double the $1.3B soccer handle recorded across June and July 2025. Mexico follows at about $2.5B, while Canada adds $300M through legal sportsbooks. H2 did not include Canadian grey market betting in that figure.
Mexico should post the highest soccer share of betting spend among the three hosts, while the US should deliver the largest handle because of its wider regulated sportsbook base.
Prediction markets stay outside the model. H2 acknowledged their US growth, but said World Cup betting volume should still sit mainly with licensed sportsbooks.
“While we recognize their growing popularity in the United States, particularly across domestic sports, we do not expect these platforms to have a material impact on global football betting handle for the 2026 World Cup,” H2 stated in its report.
Revenue may grow faster than old World Cup models suggest. H2 estimates a 12.5% hold, which points to around $7.5B in gross win for operators. Parlays and bet builders drive much of that margin, since they carry higher returns for sportsbooks than standard match bets.
“Our (hold) estimate of 12.5% reflects the continued growth of parlay and bet builder betting since 2022, which carries materially higher margins than straight match wagers,” H2 said. “Applying this rate to our World Cup handle estimate yields an estimated gross win for the tournament of approximately $7.5 billion.”
Soccer still dominates global betting, but its share has slipped as the market widened. H2 says soccer gross win has grown at a 12% compound annual rate over the last decade, even as soccer share of all sports betting fell from 69% in 2018 to 56% in 2026. US growth in basketball, American football, baseball, tennis, MMA and in play betting helps explain that split.
Team performance could still change the final number. A deep run from the US, Mexico or Canada would likely lift local engagement. Long runs from major betting nations would also help. Early exits by key markets would drag on handle, and Italy missing the field weighs on the estimate because of the size of the Italian betting market.
“A scenario in which multiple major nations reach the latter stages would be expected to drive materially higher engagement, supported by increased media attention and broader consumer interest,” H2 said. “Conversely, early exits for key markets could act as a drag on total wagering activity.”
Operator results will also depend more heavily on favorites than in past World Cups. Player props, match props and same game parlays give bettors more ways to build higher payout tickets around star players and match outcomes.
“This reflects the continued growth in single-game parlays (or bet builders), which have become an increasingly important driver of operator revenues,” H2 said.
FAQ
How much betting handle does H2 project for the 2026 World Cup?
H2 Gambling Capital projects $60B in legal sports betting handle worldwide for the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
How much could the US bet on the 2026 World Cup?
H2 expects US legal sportsbooks to take about $2.9B in World Cup wagers.
Are prediction markets included in the H2 forecast?
No. H2 excluded prediction markets from the forecast and said those platforms should not have a major effect on global football betting handle.
Why does H2 expect a 12.5% hold?
H2 points to higher use of parlays and bet builders, which usually produce stronger sportsbook margins than straight match wagers.