Europe Splits Over Prediction Markets As MiCA Deadline Nears

Europe has no single rulebook for prediction markets, leaving operators caught between gambling law, financial regulation and crypto compliance. By May 2026, Gibraltar had issued the first bespoke licence, while France, the Netherlands, Belgium and Portugal had taken formal action against Polymarket.

Good to Know

• Gibraltar is the only European jurisdiction with a specific prediction market licence.
• France, the Netherlands, Belgium and Portugal have treated Polymarket as illegal gambling.
• The 1 July MiCA deadline may force crypto-native platforms to block EU users.

A Fast Growing Market With No Clear European Home

Prediction markets have grown too large for regulators to ignore. Sector volume rose from $32 million in January 2024 to $12.6 billion in January 2026, according to SOFTSWISS. Bernstein has projected the global market could reach $1 trillion by 2030.

Yet Europe remains split. Gibraltar has licensed ADI Predictstreet under a bespoke framework, while Malta is exploring its own rules. The UK, Ireland and Denmark sit in a grey area, where prediction markets may fall under gambling rules, financial rules, or both, depending on product design.

Other countries have taken a harder line. France has said all prediction market platforms are illegal. The Dutch KSA issued a penalty order against Adventure One QSS Inc. over Polymarket. Belgium blacklisted Polymarket, and Portugal ordered the platform to stop operating, followed by ISP blocks.

Germany and Spain sit between those models. Both require local gambling approval, but neither has taken the same named enforcement path as France or the Netherlands.

The July MiCA deadline adds another problem. Crypto-native prediction markets use outcome tokens, usually YES or NO contracts, that settle at fixed value after an event result. Legal experts warn EU regulators could treat those tokens as unregistered stablecoin-like instruments. If that view takes hold, platforms may choose EU geo-blocking rather than risk fines.

That raises the key question for iGaming operators: is banning or blocking the right approach?

The answer is not simple. Enforcement can protect consumers from unlicensed products, especially around political betting and offshore crypto platforms. However, bans may also push users toward sites with no local controls, no safer gambling tools and no dispute process. A licensed fixed-odds model may offer a more practical route for regulated betting operators, since some products could fit inside existing sports betting licences.

FIFA also complicates the debate. ADI Predictstreet has a 2026 World Cup partnership, creating a test case for European regulators. Blocking the official prediction market partner of the world biggest football event may prove difficult, especially if Gibraltar supervision gives the operator an institutional base.

For now, the strongest legal home is Gibraltar. That does not create EU-wide access, but it gives licensed operators a credible base. A true European framework still looks unlikely before regulators are forced into a classification decision during 2026 or 2027.

FAQ

Which European Country Has Licensed Prediction Markets?

Gibraltar has issued a bespoke prediction market licence to ADI Predictstreet.

Where Is Polymarket Banned In Europe?

France, the Netherlands, Belgium and Portugal have taken formal action against Polymarket.

Why Does MiCA Matter For Prediction Markets?

MiCA may treat crypto outcome tokens as unregistered stablecoin-like instruments, creating new compliance risk from 1 July 2026.

Could iGaming Operators Benefit?

Yes. Fixed-odds prediction products may fit better within existing betting licences than crypto exchange models.

Is A Ban The Best Policy?

A ban may reduce illegal access, but it can also drive users offshore. Licensing, payment checks and product-specific rules may offer a cleaner approach.