California tribal leaders are preparing for a possible online sports betting ballot initiative in 2028. Any proposal will need broad tribal agreement, voter support and a revenue model that includes all 109 federally recognized tribes.
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California Nations Indian Gaming Association Chairman James Siva confirmed the 2028 target during the National Council of Legislators from Gaming States Summer Meeting in San Diego.
“We’re still very much looking at 2028 as a date that tribes are preparing to move forward with a tribally led initiative for an online sports betting market,” Siva said.
However, tribes will not return to voters until polling shows enough public support. California rejected two competing sports betting proposals in 2022 after campaigns involving tribal groups and commercial operators spent hundreds of millions of dollars. Proposition 27, which covered online betting, received support from less than 18% of voters.
Tribal leaders now want a single framework rather than another public fight. DraftKings, FanDuel and other sportsbook companies have since acknowledged errors from the 2022 campaign and opened talks with tribal representatives. Any commercial operator seeking access would probably need agreements across a wide group of tribal stakeholders.
Economic access remains central to the California online sports betting plan. Seventy-three tribes have either limited casino operations or no gaming business. Leaders want online betting revenue to follow the existing tribal revenue-sharing approach, which transfers funds from larger casino tribes to smaller and non-gaming tribes.
“We’ve definitely looked at what’s transpired in other states,” Siva said. “We’ve really focused on equity amongst tribes … trying to make sure that no tribe gets left behind as we expand gaming.”
California does not plan to copy Arizona, where professional sports organizations and selected tribes received online sportsbook licences while other tribes missed out.
“That is fundamentally something we would oppose,” Siva said.
California tribes generate about $13 billion in annual gaming revenue, according to Siva. That total represents more than one-quarter of national tribal gaming revenue and around 10% of combined commercial and tribal gaming revenue across the United States.
“When we do something, it has a massive effect,” he said.
Federally regulated prediction markets now form a major part of the California sports betting debate. Platforms such as Kalshi offer sports event contracts under federal commodities rules, even though California has not legalized traditional sports betting.
Tribal leaders argue that sports event contracts function as gambling while avoiding state gaming laws, tribal agreements and local taxes. They also fear that prediction platforms could later add products that resemble casino games.
“Without a doubt and with no flares or drama, prediction markets are the largest, most impending threat we’ve faced since the creation of this industry,” Siva said.
Early estimates suggest sports prediction markets could reduce tribal gaming revenue by roughly 5%. Siva said tribes can already see money leaving their gaming businesses.
“We’re starting to see real revenue numbers leave Indian Country,” Siva said.
Tribes have also opposed narrow state bills that only block certain people from using prediction markets. According to Siva, limited restrictions could support an argument that the underlying contracts remain legal for everyone else.
Yuhaaviatam of San Manuel Nation Vice Chairman Johnny Hernandez called for direct enforcement against sports contracts that tribes consider unauthorized gambling.
“I think that is at most the biggest threat currently,” Hernandez said. “Look at it; it’s gaming.”
No. California law does not currently permit retail or online sports betting. Voters must approve a constitutional ballot measure before either form can launch.
Tribal leaders are preparing for a potential 2028 ballot initiative. The proposal will only advance if tribes agree on the model and polling shows enough voter support.
Possibly, but tribal leaders insist that any California sports betting market must remain tribally led. Commercial sportsbooks would need tribal partnerships rather than direct control.
Tribes argue that sports event contracts offer gambling outside state gaming rules and tribal agreements. They also warn that the products redirect revenue away from Indian Country.
Tribal leaders want a revenue-sharing system covering every federally recognized tribe, including tribes with small casinos or no gaming operations.