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A growing split between federal appeals courts could put sports prediction markets before the US Supreme Court during its current term, with gaming attorney Daniel Wallach pointing to June 2027 as the earliest realistic date for a ruling.
Good to Know
The legal divide has become clearer over the past six months.
The Third Circuit backed Kalshi in April and treated sports event contracts as swaps covered by federal commodities law. However, the Ninth Circuit reached a different conclusion on August 28 and allowed Nevada to enforce state gaming laws against Kalshi sports contracts.
Then, on September 25, the Sixth Circuit rejected Kalshi efforts to secure similar protection in Ohio and Tennessee.
Those conflicting decisions create a central question for the Supreme Court. Can platforms regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission offer sports event contracts nationwide, or can individual states apply their own gambling laws?
Wallach told attendees at the Global Gaming Expo in Las Vegas that the fastest timetable could see the Supreme Court accept the cases in December 2026 or January 2027. Arguments could follow in March or April, followed by a ruling by June.
However, he also sees a later timetable as equally possible. A failure to accept the dispute early next year could leave the industry waiting until at least 2028.
A separate CFTC rulemaking process could complicate Supreme Court review.
Current federal regulations prohibit certain gaming contracts, and the Ninth Circuit relied partly on that rule when rejecting Kalshi arguments. Proposed regulations have no legal effect until the CFTC formally adopts them, the court said.
Robinhood has also asked the Supreme Court to review the Ninth Circuit dispute. Its filing argues that the court could hear the case alongside the New Jersey petition, giving justices several approaches to the same Commodity Exchange Act question.
Kalshi has separately requested a Ninth Circuit rehearing. Wallach described the chance of approval as very small. A denial would leave the conflict between the Third and Ninth circuits intact and could make Supreme Court review easier to justify.
Tribal litigation adds another legal issue. The Ninth Circuit recently found that tribes had shown a likelihood of success in claims involving sports contracts offered on tribal lands under the Indian Gaming Regulatory Act. That case follows a separate legal route from the state disputes.
Wallach estimated that states have a 70% to 80% chance of winning if the Supreme Court takes the core sports prediction market question. However, he cautioned against treating lower court results as a guarantee.
“I’d love to say a 100%, but there are no guarantees when you get to the high court,” Wallach said.