New Zealand Says Prediction Markets Are Illegal Gambling

New Zealand authorities have formally taken a position on prediction markets, placing platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket inside the legal definition of gambling -rather than financial trading or forecasting tools.

Good to Know

• Department of Internal Affairs says prediction market platforms are unauthorized gambling operators.
• No geoblocking currently exists, meaning access remains possible unless platforms restrict users themselves.
• TAB remains the only lawful online wagering channel while new licenses are prepared under pending legislation.

Government interpretation centers on classification rather than technology. Officials argue that event based contracts offered by prediction market firms function the same as bets under existing law, which means operators must hold authorization to serve local residents.

Government Classification Brings Prediction Markets Under Gambling Law

New Zealand regulator, the Department of Internal Affairs, has stated that prediction market operators cannot offer what it considers gambling products to New Zealand residents under current laws.

“Since they aren’t authorized operators, they are prohibited from offering their gambling products to people in this country. To the extent these platforms are taking bets from New Zealand customers, they are breaching the law here and can expect to hear from us,” said Department of Internal Affairs Gambling Director, Vicki Scott, to Newsroom.

Regulators have not yet issued direct notices to Kalshi or Polymarket. Neither platform lists New Zealand among blocked jurisdictions, which creates a practical gap between legal interpretation and enforcement reality. Authorities also do not require internet service providers to restrict access at present.

Structure of the domestic market explains part of the stance. Online betting is currently available only through TAB, which operates under an exclusive arrangement after Entain assumed control of day to day operations. That framework separates online wagering from online casino gaming, leaving prediction market style products outside existing categories.

Lawmakers are preparing to reshape that environment. Fifteen licenses for online betting operators are expected to be auctioned once the Online Casino Gambling Bill moves through Parliament. Operators have already been invited to register ahead of launch, signaling a controlled expansion rather than an open market model.

Prediction market firms offering contracts tied to sports outcomes or real world events may still fall outside the legislative structure even after reforms. Legal definitions created during the Entain agreement divide activity into wagering and casino play, categories that do not clearly map to event contract trading models.

Regional alignment appears to be forming. Australia reached a similar conclusion earlier in the month, determining that prediction market platforms represent a gambling product rather than a financial exchange style service. That view triggered enforcement steps.

Documents obtained through a freedom of information request by Crikey showed that the Australian Communications and Media Authority made the determination. Following that decision, authorities banned Polymarket and instructed internet providers to block access for residents.