Japan Prediction Apps Test Gambling Rules With Reward Points

Japan prediction market apps are growing by avoiding the one thing that makes Polymarket and Kalshi hard to copy in the country: real money betting.

Good To Know

• Miraima launched in November and has reached nearly one million monthly users.
• Users predict sports, stocks, politics and other real world events with virtual points.
• Points can be exchanged for rewards such as Amazon gift cards, PayPay credits and Rakuten benefits.

Japan Finds A Points Based Route

Miraima, Poyp and Gumi are building prediction games around Japan strong loyalty point culture, known as poi katsu. Users earn points through sign ups, ads and in app games, then spend those points on forecasts. Correct picks generate more points, which can later become retail rewards.

The model gives users a prediction market feel without direct cash staking. That matters in Japan, where gambling law allows only limited exceptions such as horse racing, bicycle racing, boat racing, lotteries and pachinko.

The Japan Times reported that Miraima has become one of the country fastest growing mobile apps after strong interest around major sports events and the Lower House election. Poyp launched its own prediction platform in March, while mobile gaming company Gumi introduced a point based prediction game in June.

Miraima founder Keita Adachi said the format came from US prediction market growth but needed a local fit.

“Since real-money gambling isn’t possible, we built the platform around Japan’s strong gaming and point-collecting culture,” he said.

Legal Line Still Looks Thin

Japanese platforms look different from Polymarket and Kalshi because users do not deposit cash or crypto. However, rewards still carry monetary value. That creates legal risk, even when users cannot directly lose money.

Poyp founder Takanori Shirasaka defended the structure.

“Our logic is that we don’t fall under cash-gambling restrictions because users don’t risk losing any assets with actual value,” he said.

Lawyers told The Japan Times that point based prediction markets may still face questions under promotional sweepstakes rules, especially if regulators focus on minors or addictive use. Age limits may become a pressure point. Polymarket and Kalshi require users to be at least 18, while Japan point based prediction apps currently do not impose age restrictions.

International operators are watching. The Japan Times reported that Polymarket recently appointed a local representative to support lobbying for future approval. For now, overseas real money prediction markets remain difficult in Japan because habitual gambling can carry up to three years in prison.

Japan has seen a familiar workaround before. Pachinko has stayed legal for decades by giving prizes that separate businesses can indirectly convert into money. Prediction apps are not the same product, but their reward based design shows how startups are testing the space between gaming, loyalty programs and gambling law.