Arthur Hayes, co-founder of crypto exchange BitMex that recently announced the ending of operations, expects debt behind AI data centers and power infrastructure to create a credit crisis before government intervention sends new liquidity into Bitcoin.
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Hayes argues that investors have valued AI infrastructure like a fast-growing technology business even though much of the spending resembles debt-funded property development.
Banks and other lenders may continue financing data centers, power generation and supporting infrastructure until AI capital expenditure slows. Excess capacity could then leave weaker borrowers unable to service their debts.
“The AI bubble is a credit story like 2008 and not an earnings story like 2000,” Hayes wrote.
His comparison separates the current cycle from the dot-com crash. Technology shares drove the 2000 collapse, while leverage across property and financial institutions deepened the 2008 crisis.
Hayes expects governments and central banks to respond to any major AI credit failure with bailouts and monetary support. He believes that liquidity, rather than the initial collapse, could eventually carry Bitcoin to $1 million or more.
However, the scenario depends on several uncertain events. AI investment would need to slow sharply, debt losses would need to threaten the wider financial system, and officials would need to respond with large-scale liquidity.
Hayes does not expect an immediate Bitcoin rally. He said BTC could trade between $60,000 and $70,000 and potentially fall to $50,000 as investors reduce risk during the early stage of a credit shock.
A later government response forms the bullish part of his argument. Hayes has repeatedly linked Bitcoin performance to growth in fiat money and credit, describing the asset as highly responsive to global liquidity conditions.
He also forecast Ether at $5,000 by the end of 2026. Maelstrom plans to increase its ETH holdings while selling out-of-the-money put options, a strategy that can generate income but may require buying Ether if its price falls below the option strike.