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Vice President Kamala Harris is seeing a surge in her chances of becoming the Democratic nominee for president, according to Polymarket, a popular crypto-based prediction market platform. Following President Biden’s underwhelming debate performance, there has been a significant shift in market sentiment.
On Tuesday, the odds of Harris securing the Democratic nomination rose sharply. Shares of the contract predicting her nomination climbed to 31 cents in the afternoon, suggesting a 31% likelihood of her being nominated. This is a substantial increase from the 7% odds earlier in the day. However, the shares later fell back to 23%. For comparison, Michelle Obama stands at 6%, while Gavin Newsom is at 4%.
The boost in Harris’ odds is linked to the ‘Biden drops out of the presidential race’ market, which currently suggests a 46% chance of this outcome. If Biden were to step aside, Harris could be seen as a natural successor by many of his supporters.
President Joe Biden is still officially the leading Democratic candidate. Nonetheless, there’s growing pressure from some quarters for him to withdraw, especially after his lackluster debate performance against former President Donald Trump, who is expected to be the Republican nominee.
In the Republican camp, the market is speculating that Doug Burgum might be Trump’s running mate, with a 42% probability at the time of reporting.
Polymarket experienced its fifth-highest trading volume day on Tuesday, with $5.7 million in trades, based on data from Dune Analytics. June marked a milestone for Polymarket, with the platform reaching more than $111 million in monthly trading volume for the first time.
The largest contract on Polymarket, attracting $211 million in bets, is about the U.S. presidential election in November. Trump is currently favored to win, with a 65% chance, while Biden trails with 17%.