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Amidst the fervent anticipation surrounding Bitcoin’s fourth halving event, analysts are dialing down expectations for a lasting bull run in the next 12-18 months. Unlike previous halvings that triggered significant price surges in transactions, this time, the outlook is tempered with caution.
According to analysts at Kaiko, the Paris-based blockchain firm, the halving’s impact might not be as pronounced as before. The reduction in miners’ rewards, from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC, is unlikely to be the primary driver for Bitcoin’s growth this time around.
“It may have enjoyed massive returns following its previous halvings, but the latest event comes as the asset class matures and macroeconomic conditions remain uncertain,” says Kaiko.
Instead, the focus shifts towards attracting new investors, particularly through spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the U.S. and soon in Hong Kong. This signals a significant milestone in Bitcoin’s journey towards mainstream acceptance in the financial world.
This halving occurs in a unique context, amidst a high-interest rate environment. Analysts highlight the absence of a precedent for Bitcoin’s long-term trading behavior in such conditions. However, they emphasize the pivotal role of robust liquidity and increasing demand in enhancing Bitcoin’s value proposition in the coming months.