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Bitcoin conversations feel quiet again, and for some traders, that silence looks familiar. A widely followed crypto analyst now argues the market sits in a phase that mirrors late 2020, right before Bitcoin pushed into one of its strongest runs.
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In a recent thread shared on X, Kaleo told more than 728,000 followers that Bitcoin appears to be tracing the same structure seen in the months following the Covid-era crash.
“I still believe the market is in a similar place to where it was in the fall of 2020. In both scenarios, BTC lost a key support line it had held dating back to the recovery from a major crash. This led to a mini-bart scenario where the price found a base for a new range after retracing nearly the entirety of its last major leg up.”
According to Kaleo, price action shows consolidation rather than weakness, with Bitcoin rebuilding structure after giving back much of a previous rally.
Kaleo pointed to a shift in sentiment that echoes earlier cycles. During the recovery period after the 2020 crash, equity markets surged ahead while Bitcoin lagged. At the time, many traders dismissed Bitcoin and focused attention elsewhere.
That tone feels familiar again.
“Through the majority of the post-Covid crash recovery in 2020, stocks especially the tech sector were significantly outperforming Bitcoin. The majority of alts were quiet outside of a few in the DeFi sector. People were claiming Bitcoin was dead. Currently, equities are printing new all-time highs seemingly daily. People are once again claiming Bitcoin is boring and alts are dead. It’s only a matter of time before that narrative changes.”
The comparison frames boredom as a setup phase rather than a warning sign.
Beyond short-term price structure, Kaleo pushed back on the long-held belief that Bitcoin strictly follows a four-year cycle tied to halving events and deep drawdowns.
Bitcoin history has trained many traders to expect extended downturns after major peaks. Kaleo does not agree with that outlook under current conditions.
“I still believe this isn’t the typical four year cycle where we’d expect another year or two of bearish price action before seeing new all-time highs. Instead, when we see new all-time highs in 2026 it’ll mark the ‘fun stages’ of a new supercycle. Higher for longer, real alt seasons and new retail mania with mainstream crypto dapps.”
Under that view, Bitcoin strength could persist far longer than past cycles suggested.
The supercycle thesis reframes Bitcoin behavior as part of a broader adoption curve rather than a repeating calendar pattern. Kaleo suggested extended upside, followed by a deeper reset only after sustained expansion.
“This should be followed by a longer bear market but for those of you who were brave enough to stick around during the dark and boring days, you’ll hopefully be able to stack enough over the next few years to be prepared to survive it. Now isn’t the time to walk away. It’s the time to double down and work harder. Be more bullish.”
The message targets traders who remain active during slower periods rather than chasing peaks.
A chart shared alongside the thread shows a longer arc playing out into 2026. Based on the structure outlined, Kaleo suggested Bitcoin could trade near $140,000 during the next expansion phase.