Fantasy Diary: The Closest Game and Some Numbers

In Fantasy Sports you’re always hoping for a few things. First of all it’s important that the stars you drafted end up doing what they are supposed to, and second of all you’re hoping that a few of your sleepers turn out to be valuable starters. The former is a lot easier to achieve, but yet there are always people making big mistakes in their drafts. The latter is a lot more based on variance, but at least for me it has worked out quite well in recent history.

As I’m in seven leagues this year I’ll try to give all these leagues a little love as time goes by.

Thursday night, when the Kansas City Chiefs face the Philadelphia Eagles and Chip Kelly’s crazy new offensive scheme, Week 3 starts. I don’t want to use too many words on his newly implemented system in the pros, but his clock management with around 2:20 left in the game last week one of the worst things I’ve seen in recent NFL history. It’s simple math Mister Kelly get with it.

In case you missed it, Kelly ran three quick plays within field goal range down three points. If he would’ve killed some clock there he could’ve still either scored a touchdown on that drive or kick to tie and force overtime. The Chargers now got the ball back with 1:51 left on the clock. Philipp Rivers took his team down the field and Nick Novak kicked a winning 46-yard field goal.

Chip Kelly and his star running back LeSean McCoy

All right, let’s talk numbers. I’m in seven leagues and here’s how I’m doing so far. Since I’m in many different formats I’ll give my average points scored per week (PPW) and the plus/minus compared to the league average (LA). Over all my seven leagues I’m 2-0 twice, 1-1 four times and 0-2 in one league. That’s a good start.

12-Team Standard Keeper (2-0): 127 PPW – 99.7 LA (+27.3)
14-Team PPR (2-0): 137 PPW – 113.7 LA (+23.3)
12-Team PPR Dynasty (1-1): 182.4 PPW -163.8 LA (+18.6)
10-Team PPR (1-1):  130 PPW – 112 LA (+18)
12-Team 0.5 PPR (1-1): 102.8 PPW – 121.1 LA (-18.3)
12-Team PPR (1-1): 108 PPW – 131.4 LA (-23.4)
8-Team PPR (0-2): 99 PPW – 131.3 (-32.3)

In four leagues I’m above the league average and in three leagues I’m below. My record also indicates this, as I’m the furthest above the LA in the two leagues I’m 2-0 in. In total over all seven leagues I’m 13.2 over the league average, for whatever that’s worth.

When going through my line-ups I’m actually not too concerned about the league with my lowest scoring. The 12-Team PPR where I’m -23.4 is my biggest concern as Ray Rice is out with an injury and Stevan Ridley turns out to be a major bust. Fantasy Football is filled with variance, but so far I’m very positive about five of my seven leagues. In my league with the second lowest scoring (108 PPW) I’m basically hoping for both Frank Gore and Eric Decker to have major seasons. Russell Wilson is a disappointment so far as far as fantasy value goes, but I’m hopeful as the 49ers and Panthers do have very strong defenses. This week against the Jaguars I’m sure Wilson will light that entire defense on fire.

Many Fantasy Football players saw their teams, and perhaps playoff aspirations, get dented quite seriously with the Ray Rice, Steven Jackson, Reggie Bush, Maurice Jones-Drew and Larry Fitzgerald. Even though only Jackson will be out this week for certain it still remains to be seen what will happen to these other players. Injuries to key players will always happen, but this week has been particularly bad. Personally this only affects me in two leagues.

There is no advice on how to prevent injuries, but personally I always look at the waiver wire, even when I don’t have injuries. When players get injured it always affects certain teams and having those back up players as trade bait or starters is always worth something. Trading during the regular season is always tricky, but never stop looking for improvement. When looking for trades I think it’s good to approach other teams by e-mail, Skype, messenger or otherwise. Don’t just propose a trade, because 95% of the times it will be rejected or ignored. Trade talk is a vital part of trading and this might even teach you a lesson or two about how people think and approach playing fantasy football. Having an insight on why certain people like certain players or teams can always help you along the way.

And now for the great news.

A seven-yard pass from Russell Wilson late in the fourth quarter to TE Zach Miller secured me a 1 point win in the league called “Drunk Idiots.” After losing the first week with the lowest score I was bound to go 0-2, but that pass saved me. This league is my girlfriend’s brother’s friends and I’m the only new players. Being from the Netherlands I have plenty of excuses to suck at Fantasy Football, but my trash talking during the trade nullified those possiblities. Now I have something to prove, and this one-point victory gives me at least some hopes. I’m coming for you guys!

In a keeper league I was down just four points going into Monday’s game. I needed AJ Green to score just four points, and schockingly enough he did just that. When I checked the score I saw that we tied the game and I rushed to the league settings. The tie-breaker in case of a tie are the points scored by the benched players. I smiled when I did the following math.

My bench with Ryan Tannehill (14) and Rashard Mendenhall (14) scored a total of 40.5 points and when I added up his bench points my calculations showed 40 points. That’s quit the win, beating someone by just .5. My .5 came from Jason Pierre-Paul the New York Giants Defensive End. Pierre-Paul’s half a tackle wins me a fantasy week, I’ll take it.

Oh and the trade news just reached me as well. Trent Richardson is going to the Indianapolis Colts and the Cleveland Browns will receive the Colts 2014 first round draft pick. What kind of fantasy football impact does this have? Well, in my league where I have both MJD and Richardson I’m pretty much screwed this week. What it means for Richardson long term? The Colts offense is better than the Browns and that should also be good for Richardson. I’m hopeful, but for fantasy I don’t see it having a big impact right away. 

One final thing, try to pick up Willis McGahee or Bobby Rainey if you’re in a deep league if you’re not a league with me. McGahee could be useful in the flex position and Rainey might have some good long term value, but only in deeper and dynasty leagues.

Remko Rinkema

Remko Rinkema has covered the biggest poker tournaments in the world since 2008, including many WSOP, EPT, Aussie Millions, APPT, MCOP and Unibet Open events. As an in-depth interview and story enthusiast he tries to do things a little differently. Besides the usual writings Rinkema grabs every chance to appear on podcasts, live streams and in the occasional video.

Recent Posts and Southampton extend their partnership

Southampton Football Club have announced the extension of its partnership with the Coingaming Group as Main Club Partner. With the…

5 days ago

Wyoming passes House Bill 133, allowing online sports betting and becomes first state to allow cryptocurrency to fund accounts

This week, Wyoming passed a House Bill that would legalize online sports betting in the state and it joined a…

1 week ago

Media powerhouse David Levy appointed Chairman at Genius Sports

Genius Sports has appointed sports industry pioneer David Levy as its new Chairman. In his new role, Levy will lead…

4 weeks ago

Unibet offering Gamban self exclusion tool to its US players

In a press release this morning, Kindred Group announced that it has partnered with Gamban to offer Unibet’s US customers…

1 month ago

UK announces reopening of betting shops; BGC lobby to delay Grand National

With the UK government announcing their roadmap towards ending its restrictions by end of June gradual reopening of businesses. English betting…

2 months ago

Betway to enter US Market

Digital Gaming Corporation (DGC) and Betway have partnered up in an order to set their first steps together in the…

2 months ago