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While Bitcoin’s latest crash might have upset those who recently bought their first Bitcoin, we are still on course for a price between $100,000 and $288,000. However, Bitcoin’s price will have to continue to follow the popular stock-to-flow models
The recent correction has caused some serious pain long traders. Nonetheless, infamous Quant analyst PlanB says he is actually “relieved” after Bitcoin had just lost over 20% in the past week.
In a Twitter conversation with Saifedean Ammous, PlanB noted that the price dip to under $48,000 has sent the price just below its target laid out by his stock-to-flow price models. Ammous is known for his best-selling book The Bitcoin Standard.
As of today, Bitcoin is no longer “front-running” the stock-to-flow models, which so far have proven highly accurate price forecasting tools.
Both the terms “clockwork” and “supercycle” that PlanB mentions, will be familiar to long-term hodlers. The analyst has been using these in the past to describe Bitcoin’s relationship to stock-to-flow and the characteristics of the bull run that we are currently still in.
PlanB holds on to two models. His stock-to-flow (S2F) and stock-to-flow-cross-asset (S2FX) models variously call Bitcoin prices of $100,000 to $288,000 between now and 2024.
While various factors were in play for the latest price drops, we have seen mass liqudations of long positions Sunday onwards. This after having reached a new all-time high of 64,863.10.
Citing “over-leveraged long positions” to have been a factor this week, on chain analyst Ki Young Ju is confident that we can see Bitcoin recover soon. That is, once the market has cooled down a bit. Fundamentals are still strong he says.