Sports betting systems
Sports betting systems are a set of events which combined for a particular game for a particular sport represents a profitable betting scenario. As betting on sports involves human performance the bookie/house has no pre determined edge. It is assumed that when a gambler uses a successful system he can gain an edge against the bookie. The bookmakers themselves use these systems to analyse their odds in order to set them accurately and set them unprofitable for the gambler so make no mistake thinking the system will always work. What you should be looking at is “angles”, which are single events that estimate the selection to have a better chance of winning. These should be used together with other angles and trends to make systems. Any single event that estimates a selection to have a higher likelihood of winning is called an angle as they are meant to be used in conjunction with other angles and trends (short lived systems) to produce systems.
Betting on systems
You should always use a healthy scepticism for systems as meaningless criteria can be entered to create an illusion of a profitable betting system. You can think a coin flip as an example: although a 50/50 change for both sides but by limiting the number of flips can create an illusion that other side of the coin will come up 75% of the time. Bookmakers also adjust their odds according to these same systems to make it harder for you to follow them with a favourable profit curve. Although some sports will be adjusted slower than other by the bookmakers, depending on the amount of games and money bet.
To determine systems you would use computer analysis tools with all the possible games that meet your criteria and determine the favoured teams over the opponents to make a full analysis. Determining systems is a sum of situational, biological, psychological and motivational factors together with the historical performance. Betting for your own supported team becomes a factor here as well.
The Martingale Betting System (Negative progression system)
The Martingale system is the oldest and perhaps the simplest system. The idea is based around the probability of losing infinite times in a row and is usually applied to 'even money' bets.
You start with one bet and if you win, you continue with the same one bet. If you lose, you double your bet. Each time you lose, you double your last lost bet and dictated by probability you are bound to win eventually. Hence: when winning again you would recover all your lost bets plus one unit of profit against your initial wager.
In theory the Martingale system is fool proof but in reality there are some twists to it. First of all it requires are a large bank roll for you to be able to up your wager in losing streaks. Second; it has very low return and third; when you hit the maximum bet limit you are unable to up your wager anymore. As soon as you run out of money or reach the max limit you have lost a lot of money without a change to recover the losses.
Martingale is a negative progression betting systems which requires you to increase the bet when you lose. It requires more capital and basically forces a winning outcome after a losing streak. This can be very hard to follow through and might lead to a bitter loss of bankroll. We recommend looking for alternatives.
The Labouchere Betting System (Cancellation System)
The Labouchere System or Cancellation System in a nutshell is that you write down a series or a set of numbers. The series can be any length and sequential such as 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 or not non sequential such as 1, 1, 1, 3, 3, 5, 7. The choice of series depends on the type of game you want to apply it to and the odds of the bet.
Each of these numbers indicates the number of units to bet with. With every bet you take the first and last of these numbers and use the combined amount as your wager. In the first example 1 and 6, which in total are 7 units.
In case of win you will cross out the used numbers and move on the next outer numbers in the sequence which in this case would be 2 and 5. In case of another win you repeat the procedure until the numbers run out and start over again. Completion of the sequence is called a “coup”.
When you lose, you add the bet amount in the end of the sequence. For example the first bet you made was of 7 units which consisted of the first and the last number of the sequence (1+6). Now after a losing bet you will add 7 in the end of the sequence without crossing out the used numbers: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7. Your next bet in this sequence would be 1+7. If you won the first bet but lost the second one your sequence would be 2, 3, 4, 5, 7 out of which you would bet 2+7 next.
With a small calculation you will notice that by using this system and making a coup you will always make profit. Unfortunately this system might lead you to making very large bets even if the initial bet was small.
Labouchere is a negative progression betting systems which requires you to increase the bet when you lose. It requires more capital and basically forces a winning outcome after a losing streak. This can be very hard to follow through and might lead to a bitter loss of bankroll. We recommend looking for alternatives.
The Labouchere System in Reverse
In reverse you will add winnings to the sequence instead of losses. When you win, add the number of the wager in the end of the sequence. If you lose, just delete the numbers you used for the bet. Put an appropriate profit target (i.e. 20 units) for even money bets but less for higher odds. When target is reached start the sequence from the beginning. The sequence should be 1, 2, 3, 4, so you will not risk more than 10 units per sequence.
As opposed to the normal version, The Labouchere System in Reverse is a positive progression betting system which means that you increase the bet when you win. This requires less capital and is targeted to take advantage of winning streaks. This is a recommended solution.
The D'Alembert Betting System (Negative progression and insurance system)
The D’Alembert System is a mixture of Martingale and an insurance system. Bets are raised one unit after each loss and lowered one unit after each win. The sequence and amount raised or lowered can be varied to suit particular games and odds.
For example: Starting at 100 units and step is 50 units
- 100 units - and lost
- 150 units - and lost
- 200 units - and won
- 150 units - and lost
- 200 units - and won
The next step would be 150 units
D’Alembert is a negative progression betting systems which requires you to increase the bet when you lose. It requires more capital and basically forces a winning outcome after a losing streak. This can be very hard to follow through and might lead to a bitter loss of bankroll. We recommend looking for alternatives.
Insurance betting systems work in a way that you decrease the amount of your bet when you win, usually following a high initial bet or following short row of progressive wins. It is safe for your bankroll and a good compromise of a strategy.
4 Strategies You Need to Know to Win
We could assume there are as many sports bettors as there are sports fans in the western world. Betting has grown in to a million dollar business and everyone wants to get their taste of those millions. Some with random harmless bet for their home team, some with elaborate strategies as a daily income. Out of all those enthusiasts maybe about 2% are actually making money out of it. Rest of the crowd is handing out their cash to the bookies week after week with no return in the long run.
The big question is what are the bettors in that profitable 2% doing right and what are they NOT doing? A lot is learned and a lot is lost by trial and error but we have compiled some useful information here in attempt to cut your losses before you find the golden balance between wins and losses.
Here are four key requirements to be a winner:
- Access to winning sports picks.
- A form of bankroll management.
- Use of proven sports betting systems.
- Targets from which you NEVER deviate from.
As simple as they may sound, none of the loosing 98% are doing all four if any at all.
None of these requirements are easy to find and the harder part is to pick the winning bets and to find a sports betting system that really works and has proven to do so. You might find these when it is already too late so do your research and try to see through cons promising unrealistic returns. Just remember to rely on those four basic strategies. Someone might add more items to the list but it becomes a matter of preference.
As history might have taught you that there is no such thing as sure bets but this is wrong. We are talking about a risk free bet where you will win in any possible outcome. These bets surface when the bookies have deviating estimations about the events outcome. Sure bet cannot be found in a single bookie due to the principle they follow:
Payout = ------------------------------------------------------- = < 1 (100%)
1 / home odds + 1 / draw odds + 1 / away odds
The payout percentage might be different among bookies but is in general between 80% and 95%. Search for best odds for an event amongst several bookies and you might find a sure bet or a payout > 1 (100%).
For example: Portugal to win against Spain
Home odds: @2,50
Draw odds: @3,50
Away odds: @3,40
Payout = ---------------------------------- = 1,0206 > 1
1 / 2,50 + 1 / 3,50 + 1 /3,40
As seen from the formula you will have a guaranteed profit of 2,06% no matter the outcome of an event assuming you covered each outcome. Every €100 staked you would get back €102,60 - regardless the outcome. How to calculate the stake ratio:
Divide 102,60 by odd : 102,06 € / @2,50 = 40,82 €)
29,16 € on the draw (102,06 € / @3,50)
30,02 € on the away win (102,06 € / @3,40)
As proven you will end up with profit no matter how the game ends. You have staked (40,82 + 29,16 + 30,02 = 100 €) and the payout was 102,60€ thus securing a profit of 2,06%. Your guaranteed profit with sure bets is usually between 0,1% and 15% and sometimes even higher.
All this sounds great and you are probably already thinking of possibilities in long term money making but you have to consider that this requires you to have betting accounts at several different bookmakers. Some bookies offer quite low betting limits and some of them might not even be reliable. The guaranteed profit percentage is also very low which means you would have to up your stakes to gain reasonable money out of it. High deposits might bring additional costs which you need to consider not to lose your edge.